The White House is urging Congress to limit, or cut, the once untouchable tax break for mortgage interest. In traditional class warfare parlance, the White House cap on mortgage interest deductions will fall only upon the “wealthy.” Let’s not drink the Obama Kool-Aid – the effects of this legislative move will impact everyone.
The Obama administration is proposing reducing deductions for homeowners who earn more than $250,000 pear year. Since I’m a southern California Realtor®, I’ll bring up an example from my local market – the South Bay; in particular, Manhattan Beach, CA.
Manhattan Beach is a wealthy southern California city, nestled along a prime beach-front location. With 38% of Manhattan Beach residents earning over $125,000 per year, we expect this legislative change will materially impact our local market.
When many home buyers calculate the amount of home they can afford, mortgage interest deductions on income factor heavily into capital service capacity, i.e. how much mortgage they can comfortably afford to pay every month. If a high income earner is in the 34% income tax bracket and has a $5,000 per month mortgage, of which, say, roughly $4,000 is comprised of interest payments, the net annual benefit of the tax break is $16,320, or $1,360 per month.
with a simple 5% mortgage rate, the effect of removing the tax break amounts to reducing home values by $326,400, or 34%, the marginal tax rate. These are very simple assumptions; the reality of this legislative change will likely not be as severe. Higher end properties will likely be impacted the most, with falling price levels manifesting in some way throughout the entire housing market.
President Bush attempted to eliminate the mortgage tax break in 2005, but was stopped by Congress. The Obama administration tried this same legislative change with last year’s budget, but met similar obstacles. Given that the real estate market is in such turmoil, and that so many people gain advantage from perpetuating this tax break, it is unlikely the White House proposal will be accepted by Congress.
What Does The Mortgage Tax Break Mean For The Economy?
There is no free lunch in economics – we’ve all heard that term, right? The same is true for tax breaks, or any legislative market manipulation. Enabling borrowers to write off interest payments from their income tax liability increases incentives to borrow money to buy real estate. This ultimately skews capital structures in that less equity investment is made with purchases relative to debt assumption. Increasing debt levels simultaneously increases prices and risk. In essence, the mortgage tax break causes housing to be “over-capitalized,” siphoning disproportionate capital resources from other parts of the economy.
Eliminating the tax break makes good economic sense; however, the result will inevitably be a deflation in housing prices. The magnitude of the deflation is uncertain. Given that real estate markets are already on shaky grounds, reducing, or eliminating, policies that support home prices can potentially lead to a market route.
All things considered, it is too bad President Bush was not able to repeal this tax break in 2005. That was probably the best time to moderate an over-heated market, and realign national capital resources in a relatively stable environment. We may have missed that opportunity for some time.
Politicians love to preach about the virtues of an industrial base. They do it for three reasons: Industrial firms are great sources of subsidies and political patronage, such patronage buys support from organized labor union voting blocks, and it actually does make sense for countries to produce real things of value. Since WWII America’s industry has steadily declined as a percentage of GDP, but the winds of change are blowing. Continue Reading
The shackles of serfdom are being silently fastened to America. Every dollar Congress spends beyond its budget, every Federal Reserve Note printed, every tax, regulation, and government intrusion into our lives renders us less free. Ever wonder why it feels like it’s increasingly difficult to make ends meet? Remember the days when one spouse could work, the other raise the kids, and still save for a comfortable retirement? Those days are gone, but why? What’s next? The 5 Steps to Freedom: How To Cut Your Dependence On Institutions And Escape Financial Slavery, by Jeff Nabers explains what happened to our once prosperous society and how we can all take definite steps to escape what is to come. Continue Reading
The stock market hit and then furiously bounced off a low on March 9th. Since then it has shot up about 30% nearly uninterrupted. Hope abounds that we may be emerging from one of the worst economic disasters in 20+ years. By many measures the frantic chaos of the last year appears to be subsiding, particularly when looking at the resurgence of corporate earnings, stock prices, and declining value of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Yet it is at times like these when it makes most sense to buy insurance, and it just happens to be cheaper than it has been in a long time. Continue Reading
There are two colossal events occurring in the world right now: Private credit and wealth is being destroyed, and in its place a good deal of money is being created. Much is taking place behind the scenes, driving this epic showdown between natural forces pushing for a return to sustainable equilibrium pitted against the full arsenal of man’s capability to resist. Just as the fog of war can obscure a battlefield until the end, the outcome of this struggle is far from clear. Nonetheless, there are some telling events to note, signs for which to watch, and consequences to mull. Continue Reading
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The Federal Reserve is creating tens of trillions of new dollars, debasing our currency, and silently taxing us all through inflation. With tens of trillions in federal budget deficits on the horizon there is nowhere for the US dollar to go, but down.
Refuse to be a victim of this flawed financial system, buy gold and silver NOW!
With hyperinflation and risk of economic disaster increasing with each dollar Congress recklessly spends, it pays to be prepared: Consider stocking up on Emergency Supplies:
We are moving closer towards a political economy every day. Every dollar borrowed, taxed, printed, and spent by government really comes from the private sector. Trillions of dollars of national resources are being allocated by politicians and bureaucrats towards things they claim will benefit our economy. Congress just passed a $3.6 trillion budget ($1.2 trillion in deficit), and combined the Federal Reserve and Treasury have dumped $13 trillion into the economy in the last 16 months. What we must all ask ourselves right now is whether or not we trust government with our money? Continue Reading
The verdict is not yet out as to whether we will experience inflation or deflation in the near term. The argument has been raging with pundits on both sides clinging to data they claim supports their guesses. Today marks a big day in the debate, however, with two critical pieces of news:
The immediate fallout can be seen in Gold, the U.S. dollar, and Treasuries today. Both pieces of news are inflationary. Rather than the feared ‘deflationary spiral’ we’re starting to see consumer prices heat up, albeit not appreciately just yet. The Fed buying Treasuries amounts to them printing $300 billion in new currency. This money is created out of thin air.
Most telling on inflationary fears is the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), up over 10% today, while the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) approached a 4% gain. PowerShares US Dollar Index (UUP) dropped over 3%, and the 30-Year Treasury yield fell to a low of 3.37% after the Fed announcement, settling higher at 3.57% later in the day.
In Checkmate: How the Federal Government Will Lose in 2009 I argued that our leaders were backing public finances into a predictable corner. With $2-3 trillion in budget deficit for 2009, alone, with more planned in coming years, government will be forced to increase borrowing or printing. Today’s news supports the ‘printing’ hypothesis, but I suspect this is just the beginning. The big game unfolding will be the Treasury issuing bonds to raise funds and the Fed turning around and buying them. This is a scam that will either lead to increasing bond yields or increasing inflation. There are no other options.
Inflation has long been a contentious topic in the U.S., not really abating at any point since the 1960′s. President Johnson’s “Guns & Butter” policies of the Vietnam war era sparked a good deal of money printing, inflation, and debate. Since then the Federal Reserve, Congress, and every President have gone on spending binges, rampant borrowing, and always increasing money supply. These are the tools of macro-economics, in which central decision authorities nationalize resources to socially engineer what they think will be perpetual prosperity. The results are debatable, but the consequences clear: Continue Reading
Funny things have been going on in markets for some time now. Stocks, corporate bonds, commodities, and currencies were decimated in 2008, with the volatility threatening to persist into the New Year. There’s talk of deflation, inflation, stagflation, defaults, bankruptcies, layoffs, unemployment, and the best word of the year: de-leveraging. Wait, is that even a word?
The only thing we know is that we don’t really know what’s happening or where it’ll take us. The more confused people become the more gold they buy. In fact, from peak to trough gold (GLD) has risen 52% over the last 52 weeks. With this kind of bull run, it makes sense to lodge a small bet in the other direction. Continue Reading
