Posted on 12 June 2010. Tags: barack obama, blog political, blog real estate, california real estate, class warfare, credit cycle, Economics, Fannie Mae, financial system, fiscal policy, FNM, freedom, home prices, homes manhattan beach, housing policies, housing policy, housing prices, HUD, income manhattan beach, inflation, liberty, manhattan beach, manhattan beach homes, manhattan beach income, manhattan beach property, monetary policy, money, mortgage, mortgage deduction, obama, political blog, political economy, Politics, politics blog, politics real estate, prices housing, Real Estate, real estate blog, real estate economics, real estate prices, real estate tax, Rob Viglione, socal real estate, socalrea, socialism, southern california, tax, tax real estate, taxation
The White House is urging Congress to limit, or cut, the once untouchable tax break for mortgage interest. In traditional class warfare parlance, the White House cap on mortgage interest deductions will fall only upon the wealthy. Let’s not drink the Obama Kool-Aid – the effects of this legislative move will impact everyone.
The Obama administration is proposing reducing deductions for homeowners who earn more than $250,000 pear year. Since I’m a southern California Realtor®, I’ll bring up an example from my local market – the South Bay; in particular, Manhattan Beach, CA.

Chart from LA Times Local Neighborhoods.
Manhattan Beach is a wealthy southern California city, nestled along a prime beach-front location. With 38% of Manhattan Beach residents earning over $125,000 per year, we expect this legislative change will materially impact our local market.
When many home buyers calculate the amount of home they can afford, mortgage interest deductions on income factor heavily into capital service capacity, i.e. how much mortgage they can comfortably afford to pay every month. If a high income earner is in the 34% income tax bracket and has a $5,000 per month mortgage, of which, say, roughly $4,000 is comprised of interest payments, the net annual benefit of the tax break is $16,320, or $1,360 per month.
with a simple 5% mortgage rate, the effect of removing the tax break amounts to reducing home values by $326,400, or 34%, the marginal tax rate. These are very simple assumptions; the reality of this legislative change will likely not be as severe. Higher end properties will likely be impacted the most, with falling price levels manifesting in some way throughout the entire housing market.
President Bush attempted to eliminate the mortgage tax break in 2005, but was stopped by Congress. The Obama administration tried this same legislative change with last years budget, but met similar obstacles. Given that the real estate market is in such turmoil, and that so many people gain advantage from perpetuating this tax break, it is unlikely the White House proposal will be accepted by Congress.
What Does The Mortgage Tax Break Mean For The Economy?
There is no free lunch in economics weve all heard that term, right? The same is true for tax breaks, or any legislative market manipulation. Enabling borrowers to write off interest payments from their income tax liability increases incentives to borrow money to buy real estate. This ultimately skews capital structures in that less equity investment is made with purchases relative to debt assumption. Increasing debt levels simultaneously increases prices and risk. In essence, the mortgage tax break causes housing to be over-capitalized, siphoning disproportionate capital resources from other parts of the economy.
Eliminating the tax break makes good economic sense; however, the result will inevitably be a deflation in housing prices. The magnitude of the deflation is uncertain. Given that real estate markets are already on shaky grounds, reducing, or eliminating, policies that support home prices can potentially lead to a market route.
All things considered, it is too bad President Bush was not able to repeal this tax break in 2005. That was probably the best time to moderate an over-heated market, and realign national capital resources in a relatively stable environment. We may have missed that opportunity for some time.
Posted in Investing, Politics, Real Estate
Posted on 02 February 2010. Tags: American industry, American manufacturing, budget deficits, buy canned goods, buy disaster supplies, buy freezed-dried food, buy gold, buy silver, capitalism, congress, corporate subsidies, cost of labor, currency debasement, currency depreciation, current account, de-evoling economy, decline of the dollar, decreasing cost of labor, dollar, dollar decline, domestic goods, economic meltdown, Economics, economy, economy de-evolving, fall of the American Empire, federal reserve, fiat currency, finance, financial meltdown, free economy, free enterprise, freeze dried food, freezed-dried food, gold, gross domestic product, high unemployment, hyperinflation, industrial base, industrial base revival, inflating the money supply, inflation, inflation hedge, labor costs, labor unions, laissez-faire, libertarian, Lynn Tilton, manufacturing, manufacturing economy, manufacturing revival, market equilibrium, money supply, paper currencies, Patriarch Partners, political economy, political patronage, precious metals, prepare for disaster, printing money, protect against inflation, protect from inflation, public spending, rampant deficits, revival manufacturing, reviving the industrial base, Rob Viglione, silver, Spending, stock up on food, store food, store supplies, subsidizing industry, trade balance, trade deficit, U.S. dollar, unemployment, USD
Politicians love to preach about the virtues of an industrial base. They do it for three reasons: Industrial firms are great sources of subsidies and political patronage, such patronage buys support from organized labor union voting blocks, and it actually does make sense for countries to produce real things of value. Since WWII America’s industry has steadily declined as a percentage of GDP, but the winds of change are blowing. Continue Reading
Posted in Economics, Featured, Investing, Politics
Posted on 20 September 2009. Tags: 5 Steps To Freedom, Alan Greenspan, Big Brother, capital gains, capitalism, cash flow, Constitution, consumption, corporate taxes, create your own currency, cumulative taxation, currency, currency debasement, cut dependence on institutions, dollar, economic freedom, economic growth, Economics, effective tax burden, federal reserve, FI, financial freedom, financial institutions, financial intelligence, financial slavery, free enterprise, freedom, government, growth, income, income taxes, individual freedom, Individual Retirement Account, inflation, Investing, Jeff Nabers, liberty, middle class, nation of serfs, perpetual inflation, Phoebe Chongchua, Politics, property rights, punative taxation, purchasing power, Real Estate, real estate investing, regulation, regulations, revenue participation, Rob Viglione, royalty financing, Savings, self-directed IRA, serfdom, slavery, small business, socialism, solo 401(k), speculation, taxation, USD

The shackles of serfdom are being silently fastened to America. Every dollar Congress spends beyond its budget, every Federal Reserve Note printed, every tax, regulation, and government intrusion into our lives renders us less free. Ever wonder why it feels like it’s increasingly difficult to make ends meet? Remember the days when one spouse could work, the other raise the kids, and still save for a comfortable retirement? Those days are gone, but why? What’s next? The 5 Steps to Freedom: How To Cut Your Dependence On Institutions And Escape Financial Slavery, by Jeff Nabers explains what happened to our once prosperous society and how we can all take definite steps to escape what is to come. Continue Reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Personal Finance, Politics
Posted on 17 April 2009. Tags: banking, banks, black swan, CBOE, chaos, corporate earnings, delta, doomsday, earnings per share, Economics, EPS, fear, financial industry, futures, futures options, gamma, greeks, hedge stocks, hedge the market, historical range, insurance, Investing, iron condors, market neutral, NASDAQ, Obamanomics, Options, Politics, portfolio insurance, portfolio theory, prepare for war, profits, protect your portfolio, psychology of fear, risk, risk management, Rob Viglione, S&P, stock market crash, stocks, strategy, theta, trading, Vegetius, Videos, VIX, volatility index, VXN, XLF
The stock market hit and then furiously bounced off a low on March 9th. Since then it has shot up about 30% nearly uninterrupted. Hope abounds that we may be emerging from one of the worst economic disasters in 20+ years. By many measures the frantic chaos of the last year appears to be subsiding, particularly when looking at the resurgence of corporate earnings, stock prices, and declining value of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Yet it is at times like these when it makes most sense to buy insurance, and it just happens to be cheaper than it has been in a long time. Continue Reading
Posted in Economics, Investing
Posted on 13 April 2009. Tags: Al Pacino, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, auto manufacturers, bailout, banking, banks, barack obama, Ben Bernanke, Big Brother, bonds, borrow, budget deficit, capital, capitalism, Chairman, China, congress, consequences, consumer-backed securities, contraction, Credit, current account, debt, debt deflation, debt mania, declining rates, decomposing inflation, deflation, Detroit, Devil's Advocate, economic growth, economic output, Economics, Employment, exports, Fed, federal reserve, financial system, free enterprise, free trade, general price level, globalization, government, Great Unwinding, hedge fund bailout, Hoisington, House of Representatives, household worth, imports, inflation, institutions, interest rates, Investment management company, Japan, long-term interest rates, M1, M2, M3, Milton Friedman, money creation, money equation, money supply, mortgage bailout, Net Worth, Obamanomics, political capital, Politics, President Obama, prices, print money, printing presses, private capital, Real Estate, Rob Viglione, Senate, sin, socialism, spend, stock market, TARP, tax the rich, taxation, taxes, trade, treasuries, unemployment, vanity, velocity of money, wealth destruction
There are two colossal events occurring in the world right now: Private credit and wealth is being destroyed, and in its place a good deal of money is being created. Much is taking place behind the scenes, driving this epic showdown between natural forces pushing for a return to sustainable equilibrium pitted against the full arsenal of man’s capability to resist. Just as the fog of war can obscure a battlefield until the end, the outcome of this struggle is far from clear. Nonetheless, there are some telling events to note, signs for which to watch, and consequences to mull. Continue Reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Politics
Posted on 12 April 2009. Tags: barack obama, congress, Constitution, Department of the Treasury, Economics, fixing the economy, genius, House of Representatives, how is the government fixing the economy, Margaritaville, Obamanomics, Politics, President Obama, protectionism, Rob Viglione, Senate, socialism, South Park, Tim Geithner, Treasury
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The Federal Reserve is creating tens of trillions of new dollars, debasing our currency, and silently taxing us all through inflation. With tens of trillions in federal budget deficits on the horizon there is nowhere for the US dollar to go, but down.

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With hyperinflation and risk of economic disaster increasing with each dollar Congress recklessly spends, it pays to be prepared: Consider stocking up on Emergency Supplies:


Posted in Economics, Investing, Politics
Posted on 05 April 2009. Tags: agriculture, American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, Antarctica, asset bubbles, balance sheet, barack obama, Big Brother, Bill of Rights, bond maturity, bonds, budget deficit, bureaucracy, cap and trade, capital expenditures, capitalism, commodities, congress, Constitution, consumer spending, courts, currency, cut spending, DBA, DBC, debt, deflation, democracy, dependence, diversification, dividends, dollar, DOW, Economics, elections, electricity costs, energy, equities, Fannie Mae, federal reserve, federal spending, financial industry, financial regulations, fiscal policy, fixed rate debt, FNM, FRE, Freddie Mac, free enterprise, free society, GLD, gold, GSG, Health Care, hedge, housing boom, housing bust, housing is a right, inflation, interest rates, international, Investing, irrational exuberance, join a militia, junk loans, labor laws, labor market, laws, leverage, life savings, Medicaid, Medicare, military, militia, monetary policy, money supply, mortgage, nanny state, NASDAQ, national debt, natural gas, oil, police state, Politics, portfolio, portfolio management, precious metals, President Obama, public debt, quantitative easing, question assumptions, Real Estate, regulate carbon emissions, regulations, retained earnings, right to bear arms, Rob Viglione, rolling dice, S&P500, savings rate, second amendment, short stocks, short the market, short-term debt, silver, SLV, social security, socialism, stagflation, stimulus, stock market, subprime debt, TARP, Tim Geithner, TIP, Treasury, treasury inflation protected securities, trust government, union, USD, USO, velocity of money, welfare, WIP, yields
We are moving closer towards a political economy every day. Every dollar borrowed, taxed, printed, and spent by government really comes from the private sector. Trillions of dollars of national resources are being allocated by politicians and bureaucrats towards things they claim will benefit our economy. Congress just passed a $3.6 trillion budget ($1.2 trillion in deficit), and combined the Federal Reserve and Treasury have dumped $13 trillion into the economy in the last 16 months. What we must all ask ourselves right now is whether or not we trust government with our money? Continue Reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Politics
Posted on 18 March 2009. Tags: 30-Year Treasuries, Ben Bernanke, bonds, budget deficit, Chairman, checkmate, congress, Consumer Price Index, CPI, debt, dollar, Economics, federal reserve, fixed income, free enterprise, GDX, GLD, gold, idiocy, inflation, money, money supply, national debt, nationalization, Politics, printing, protectionism, Rob Viglione, socialism, treasuries, U.S. dollar, USD, UUP
The verdict is not yet out as to whether we will experience inflation or deflation in the near term. The argument has been raging with pundits on both sides clinging to data they claim supports their guesses. Today marks a big day in the debate, however, with two critical pieces of news:
1) Consumer price index (CPI) rises more than expected, up 0.4% in Feb. following a 0.3% gain in Jan. This represents at 4.8% annualized inflation rate.
2) Federal Reserve committed to buying $300 billion in long-term Treasuries as part of its plan to drive consumer borrowing costs lower.
The immediate fallout can be seen in Gold, the U.S. dollar, and Treasuries today. Both pieces of news are inflationary. Rather than the feared ‘deflationary spiral’ we’re starting to see consumer prices heat up, albeit not appreciately just yet. The Fed buying Treasuries amounts to them printing $300 billion in new currency. This money is created out of thin air.
Most telling on inflationary fears is the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), up over 10% today, while the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) approached a 4% gain. PowerShares US Dollar Index (UUP) dropped over 3%, and the 30-Year Treasury yield fell to a low of 3.37% after the Fed announcement, settling higher at 3.57% later in the day.
In Checkmate: How the Federal Government Will Lose in 2009 I argued that our leaders were backing public finances into a predictable corner. With $2-3 trillion in budget deficit for 2009, alone, with more planned in coming years, government will be forced to increase borrowing or printing. Today’s news supports the ‘printing’ hypothesis, but I suspect this is just the beginning. The big game unfolding will be the Treasury issuing bonds to raise funds and the Fed turning around and buying them. This is a scam that will either lead to increasing bond yields or increasing inflation. There are no other options.
Posted in Economics, Investing, Politics
Posted on 08 March 2009. Tags: 1913, aggregate output, arrogance, cash, collectivism, commodities, congress, currency, deflationary, dollar, Economics, federal reserve, fiscal policy, fiscal prudence, general price level, gold, gold standard, guns & butter, historical inflation, inflation, inflationary policies, Keynes, keynesian policy, M3, macro-economics, monetary policy, money identity, money supply, perpetual inflation, perpetual prosperity, Politics, quantity theory of money, real value of final expenditures, Rob Viglione, Savings, shadow statistics, silver, socialism, socially engineer society, standard of living, U.S. dollar, USD, value of the dollar, velocity of money, Vietnam War
Inflation has long been a contentious topic in the U.S., not really abating at any point since the 1960′s. President Johnson’s “Guns & Butter” policies of the Vietnam war era sparked a good deal of money printing, inflation, and debate. Since then the Federal Reserve, Congress, and every President have gone on spending binges, rampant borrowing, and always increasing money supply. These are the tools of macro-economics, in which central decision authorities nationalize resources to socially engineer what they think will be perpetual prosperity. The results are debatable, but the consequences clear: Continue Reading
Posted in Economics, Investing, Politics
Posted on 12 February 2009. Tags: buy gold, GDX, GLD, GLL, hedge gold, inflation, long gold, Options, portfolio insurance, puts, risk management, Rob Viglione, sell calls, short gold
Funny things have been going on in markets for some time now. Stocks, corporate bonds, commodities, and currencies were decimated in 2008, with the volatility threatening to persist into the New Year. There’s talk of deflation, inflation, stagflation, defaults, bankruptcies, layoffs, unemployment, and the best word of the year: de-leveraging. Wait, is that even a word?
The only thing we know is that we don’t really know what’s happening or where it’ll take us. The more confused people become the more gold they buy. In fact, from peak to trough gold (GLD) has risen 52% over the last 52 weeks. With this kind of bull run, it makes sense to lodge a small bet in the other direction. Continue Reading
Posted in Investing