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		<title>Obama Wants To End Mortgage Tax Break</title>
		<link>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/06/12/obama-wants-to-end-mortgage-tax-break/</link>
		<comments>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/06/12/obama-wants-to-end-mortgage-tax-break/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 13 Jun 2010 04:59:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manhattan Beach Observer</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://freedomfactory.skyrocket.ws/?p=2039</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/06/12/obama-wants-to-end-mortgage-tax-break/' addthis:title='Obama Wants To End Mortgage Tax Break '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div>The White House is urging Congress to limit, or cut, the once untouchable tax break for mortgage interest. In traditional class warfare parlance, the White House cap on mortgage interest deductions will fall only upon the wealthy. Let&#8217;s not drink the Obama Kool-Aid &#8211; the effects of this legislative move will impact everyone. The Obama [...]<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/06/12/obama-wants-to-end-mortgage-tax-break/' addthis:title='Obama Wants To End Mortgage Tax Break ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div></p><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/06/12/obama-wants-to-end-mortgage-tax-break/">Obama Wants To End Mortgage Tax Break</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/06/12/obama-wants-to-end-mortgage-tax-break/' addthis:title='Obama Wants To End Mortgage Tax Break '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div><div>
<p>The <a href="http://thehill.com/homenews/administration/101883-axe-may-fall-on-tax-break-for-mortgages" target="_blank">White House is urging Congress</a> to limit, or cut, the once untouchable tax break for mortgage interest. In traditional class warfare parlance, the White House cap on mortgage interest deductions will fall only upon the wealthy. Let&#8217;s not drink the Obama Kool-Aid &#8211; the effects of this legislative move will impact everyone.</p>
<p>The Obama administration is proposing reducing deductions for homeowners who earn more than $250,000 pear year. Since I&#8217;m a southern California Realtor®, I&#8217;ll bring up an example from my local market &#8211; the South Bay; in particular, <a href="http://socalrea.com/market-stats/">Manhattan Beach</a>, CA.</p>
<p><a href="http://socalrea.com/files/2010/06/MB-Income-Distribution.jpg"><img src="http://socalrea.com/files/2010/06/MB-Income-Distribution-300x175.jpg" alt="" width="300" height="175" /></a></p>
<p>Chart from <a href="http://projects.latimes.com/mapping-la/neighborhoods/neighborhood/manhattan-beach/" target="_blank">LA Times Local Neighborhoods</a>.</p>
<p>Manhattan Beach is a wealthy southern California city, nestled along a prime beach-front location. With 38% of Manhattan Beach residents earning over $125,000 per year, we expect this legislative change will materially impact our local market.</p>
<p>When many home buyers calculate the amount of home they can afford, mortgage interest deductions on income factor heavily into capital service capacity, i.e. how much mortgage they can comfortably afford to pay every month. If a high income earner is in the 34% income tax bracket and has a $5,000 per month mortgage, of which, say, roughly $4,000 is comprised of interest payments, the net annual benefit of the tax break is $16,320, or $1,360 per month.</p>
<p>with a simple 5% mortgage rate, the effect of removing the tax break amounts to reducing home values by $326,400, or 34%, the marginal tax rate. These are very simple assumptions; the reality of this legislative change will likely not be as severe. Higher end properties will likely be impacted the most, with falling price levels manifesting in some way throughout the entire housing market.</p>
<p>President Bush attempted to eliminate the mortgage tax break in 2005, but was stopped by Congress. The Obama administration tried this same legislative change with last years budget, but met similar obstacles. Given that the real estate market is in such turmoil, and that so many people gain advantage from perpetuating this tax break, it is unlikely the White House proposal will be accepted by Congress.</p>
<p><strong>What Does The Mortgage Tax Break Mean For The Economy?</strong></p>
<p>There is no free lunch in economics  weve all heard that term, right? The same is true for tax breaks, or any legislative market manipulation. Enabling borrowers to write off interest payments from their income tax liability increases incentives to borrow money to buy real estate. This ultimately skews capital structures in that less equity investment is made with purchases relative to debt assumption. Increasing debt levels simultaneously increases prices and risk. In essence, the mortgage tax break causes housing to be over-capitalized, siphoning disproportionate capital resources from other parts of the economy.</p>
<p>Eliminating the tax break makes good economic sense; however, the result will inevitably be a deflation in housing prices. The magnitude of the deflation is uncertain. Given that real estate markets are already on shaky grounds, reducing, or eliminating, policies that support home prices can potentially lead to a market route.</p>
<p>All things considered, it is too bad President Bush was not able to repeal this tax break in 2005. That was probably the best time to moderate an over-heated market, and realign national capital resources in a relatively stable environment. We may have missed that opportunity for some time.</p>
</div>
<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/06/12/obama-wants-to-end-mortgage-tax-break/' addthis:title='Obama Wants To End Mortgage Tax Break ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/06/12/obama-wants-to-end-mortgage-tax-break/">Obama Wants To End Mortgage Tax Break</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<item>
		<title>U.S. Economy De-Evolving: Rebuilding The Industrial Base</title>
		<link>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/02/02/us-economy-de-evolving-rebuilding-the-industrial-base/</link>
		<comments>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/02/02/us-economy-de-evolving-rebuilding-the-industrial-base/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 03 Feb 2010 06:14:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manhattan Beach Observer</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://freedomfactory.skyrocket.ws/?p=1952</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/02/02/us-economy-de-evolving-rebuilding-the-industrial-base/' addthis:title='U.S. Economy De-Evolving: Rebuilding The Industrial Base '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div>Politicians love to preach about the virtues of an industrial base. They do it for three reasons: Industrial firms are great sources of subsidies and political patronage, such patronage buys support from organized labor union voting blocks, and it actually does make sense for countries to produce real things of value. Since WWII America&#8217;s industry [...]<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/02/02/us-economy-de-evolving-rebuilding-the-industrial-base/' addthis:title='U.S. Economy De-Evolving: Rebuilding The Industrial Base ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div></p><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/02/02/us-economy-de-evolving-rebuilding-the-industrial-base/">U.S. Economy De-Evolving: Rebuilding The Industrial Base</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/02/02/us-economy-de-evolving-rebuilding-the-industrial-base/' addthis:title='U.S. Economy De-Evolving: Rebuilding The Industrial Base '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div><p><a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/factory_pollution.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-1955" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/factory_pollution-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="150" height="150" /></a>Politicians love to preach about the virtues of an industrial base. They do it for three reasons: Industrial firms are great sources of subsidies and political patronage, such patronage buys support from organized labor union voting blocks, and it actually does make sense for countries to produce real things of value. Since WWII America&#8217;s industry has steadily declined as a percentage of GDP, but the winds of change are blowing.<span id="more-1952"></span></p>
<p>In &#8220;<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/u.s.-economy-%22de-evolving%22-an-industrialist%27s-plan-to-revive-american-manufacturing-416990.html?tickers=tlt,uup,TM,xli,F,^DJI,^GSPC&amp;sec=topStories&amp;pos=8&amp;asset=&amp;ccode=" target="_blank">U.S. Economy &#8216;De-Evolving&#8217;: An Industrialist&#8217;s Plan To Revive American Manufacturing</a>&#8220;, Lynn Tilton, CEO of industrial firm Patriarch Partners,  makes the case that reviving America&#8217;s industrial base is imperative for the long term health of our country:</p>
<blockquote><p>The reality is, in recent times, every great empire has been built on a manufacturing economy. The fall of every empire has been the failure to remember that one fundamental fact.</p></blockquote>
<p>Tilton points out that manufacturing has dropped from 28% to 12% of the US economy since WWII and that &#8220;some people are better at building and making things than working on spreadsheets in a cubicle.&#8221;</p>
<p>A few things are clear, however, that support Tilton&#8217;s believe in a manufacturing revival:</p>
<ul>
<li>The US dollar (USD) is in for troubled times in the near future</li>
<li>Declining USD means increased demand for domestic goods relative to foreign</li>
<li>Sustained high unemployment reduces labor costs and makes domestic goods less expensive</li>
</ul>
<p>In a free economy those factors would work to bring our trade and current account balances into equilibrium through increased manufacturing and industrial production; however, there is no telling how badly politicians can mess things up!</p>
<p>SPECIAL OFFERS</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">The Federal Reserve is creating tens of trillions of new dollars</span>, debasing our currency, and <strong>silently taxing us all through inflation</strong>. With tens of trillions in federal budget deficits on the horizon there is nowhere for the US dollar to go, but down.<br />
<a href="http://www.bullionvault.com/#robviglione"><img src="http://www.bullionvault.com/images/adverts/Buy_Gold_Today_Banner.gif" border="0" alt="Buy gold online - quickly, safely and at low prices" width="468" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Refuse to be a victim of this flawed financial system, buy gold and silver NOW!</p>
<p>With <span style="text-decoration: underline">hyperinflation</span> and risk of <span style="text-decoration: underline">economic disaster</span> increasing with each dollar Congress recklessly spends, it pays to be prepared: Consider <strong>stocking up on Emergency Supplies</strong>:</p>
<p><a href="http://thereadystore.com/freeze-dried-food-storage/ultimate-year-supply-of-freeze-dried-food-10-cans?aid=4b6612785c8c0&amp;bid=5d60a2f8" target="_top"><img src="http://www.thereadystore.com/affiliate/accounts/default1/banners/728x90uys.png" alt="Ultimate Year Supply" width="798" height="90" /></a><img style="border:0" src="http://www.thereadystore.com/affiliate/scripts/imp.php?aid=4b6612785c8c0&amp;bid=5d60a2f8" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p>
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<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/02/02/us-economy-de-evolving-rebuilding-the-industrial-base/' addthis:title='U.S. Economy De-Evolving: Rebuilding The Industrial Base ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2010/02/02/us-economy-de-evolving-rebuilding-the-industrial-base/">U.S. Economy De-Evolving: Rebuilding The Industrial Base</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Book Review: 5 Steps To Freedom</title>
		<link>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/09/20/book-review-5-steps-to-freedom/</link>
		<comments>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/09/20/book-review-5-steps-to-freedom/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 20 Sep 2009 23:33:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manhattan Beach Observer</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://freedomfactory.skyrocket.ws/?p=1896</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/09/20/book-review-5-steps-to-freedom/' addthis:title='Book Review: 5 Steps To Freedom '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div>The shackles of serfdom are being silently fastened to America. Every dollar Congress spends beyond its budget, every Federal Reserve Note printed, every tax, regulation, and government intrusion into our lives renders us less free. Ever wonder why it feels like it&#8217;s increasingly difficult to make ends meet? Remember the days when one spouse could [...]<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/09/20/book-review-5-steps-to-freedom/' addthis:title='Book Review: 5 Steps To Freedom ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div></p><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/09/20/book-review-5-steps-to-freedom/">Book Review: 5 Steps To Freedom</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/09/20/book-review-5-steps-to-freedom/' addthis:title='Book Review: 5 Steps To Freedom '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div><p><a href="http://astore.amazon.com/thefrefac-20/detail/0982431309"><img class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-1898" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/5-steps-to-freedom1-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="150" height="150" /></a></p>
<p>The shackles of serfdom are being silently fastened to America. Every dollar Congress spends beyond its budget, every Federal Reserve Note printed, every tax, regulation, and government intrusion into our lives renders us less free. Ever wonder why it feels like it&#8217;s increasingly difficult to make ends meet? Remember the days when one spouse could work, the other raise the kids, and still save for a comfortable retirement? Those days are gone, but why? What&#8217;s next? <a href="http://astore.amazon.com/thefrefac-20/detail/0982431309" target="_self">The 5 Steps to Freedom: How To Cut Your Dependence On Institutions And Escape Financial Slavery</a>, by Jeff Nabers explains what happened to our once prosperous society and how we can all take definite steps to escape what is to come.<span id="more-1896"></span></p>
<p>Jeff Nabers begins the book with an overview of why Americans&#8217; standard of living has been on the decline, and why it has much further to go:</p>
<ul>
<li>Erosion of the Constitution, property rights, and individual freedoms</li>
<li>Growth of massive government with increasingly lavish taxation requirements</li>
<li>Stifling of U.S. business by over-regulating &amp; levying ridiculously high rates of taxation</li>
<li>Perpetual inflation caused by Federal Reserve currency debasement</li>
</ul>
<p>In <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/americas-effective-tax-burden-a-nation-of-serfs/" target="_self">America&#8217;s Effective Tax Burden: A Nation of Serfs</a>, I showed how effective cumulative taxation has reached as high as 57% for middle class Americans. That equates to <em>working 7 months of the year just to pay Big Brother!</em> In the meantime, since 1987, when Alan Greenspan, assumed the role of Chairman of the Federal Reserve, the purchasing power of the U.S. dollar (USD) has been cut in half. The Federal Reserve has pursued a relentless policy of currency debasement since it came into existence, inflating away 98% of the dollar&#8217;s value since 1913.</p>
<p>When you consider that the typical housing payment is ~ 30% of income it is no wonder that the 57% net effective tax burden crushes most Americans. That leaves just over 10% of income for personal use, the tragedy being that most, if not all (or more), of this typically goes towards interest payments on debt! As Nabers argues, this is akin to financial slavery.</p>
<p>Fortunately, Naber&#8217;s offers a set of definite actions we can take in <a href="http://astore.amazon.com/thefrefac-20/detail/0982431309" target="_self">5 Steps To Freedom</a> that can break the shackles before they clamp too tightly. First, we need to regain orientation in our financial lives. Measuring our wealth against a perpetually debased USD obscures the real picture, often leading us to feel more secure in our financial lives than reality warrants. Naber&#8217;s shows how to create your own currency measure by analyzing your own consumption requirements.</p>
<p>Once you can measure your own net worth in an honest fashion, Naber&#8217;s shows how to preserve your savings and use excess capital to earn income. He dispels common misconceptions about investing, exposing various Wall Street products, like stocks and bonds, as shams designed to make money for Investment Bankers who peddle them. Rather, <strong>Naber&#8217;s advocates self-directed IRA&#8217;s and Solo 401(K)&#8217;s and creative direct investment in partnerships, royalty financing (revenue participation), small businesses, your own business, and a variety of real estate concepts.</strong></p>
<p>If you have a nagging suspicion that something is wrong with our financial system, that your standard of living continues to drop as you work more hours-if you can&#8217;t shake the stress of working more than one job, while still falling behind on credit card payments-do yourself a favor and read the <a href="http://astore.amazon.com/thefrefac-20/detail/0982431309">5 Steps To Freedom</a>. This book will not help you get-rich-quick, or magically change your life; rather, it will help explain what&#8217;s wrong with our system and how you can slowly extract yourself from its negative consequences.</p>
<p>SPECIAL OFFERS</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">The Federal Reserve is creating tens of trillions of new dollars</span>, debasing our currency, and <strong>silently taxing us all through inflation</strong>. With tens of trillions in federal budget deficits on the horizon there is nowhere for the US dollar to go, but down.<br />
<a href="http://www.bullionvault.com/#robviglione"><img src="http://www.bullionvault.com/images/adverts/Buy_Gold_Today_Banner.gif" border="0" alt="Buy gold online - quickly, safely and at low prices" width="468" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Refuse to be a victim of this flawed financial system, buy gold and silver NOW!</p>
<p>With <span style="text-decoration: underline">hyperinflation</span> and risk of <span style="text-decoration: underline">economic disaster</span> increasing with each dollar Congress recklessly spends, it pays to be prepared: Consider <strong>stocking up on Emergency Supplies</strong>:</p>
<p><a href="http://thereadystore.com/freeze-dried-food-storage/ultimate-year-supply-of-freeze-dried-food-10-cans?aid=4b6612785c8c0&amp;bid=5d60a2f8" target="_top"><img src="http://www.thereadystore.com/affiliate/accounts/default1/banners/728x90uys.png" alt="Ultimate Year Supply" width="798" height="90" /></a><img style="border:0" src="http://www.thereadystore.com/affiliate/scripts/imp.php?aid=4b6612785c8c0&amp;bid=5d60a2f8" width="1" height="1" alt="" /></p>
<p><!--Session data--></p>
<p><!--Session data--></p>
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<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/09/20/book-review-5-steps-to-freedom/' addthis:title='Book Review: 5 Steps To Freedom ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/09/20/book-review-5-steps-to-freedom/">Book Review: 5 Steps To Freedom</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
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		<item>
		<title>Buy VIX To Protect Market Gains</title>
		<link>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/17/buy-vix-to-protect-market-gains/</link>
		<comments>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/17/buy-vix-to-protect-market-gains/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Apr 2009 07:02:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manhattan Beach Observer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://freedomfactory.skyrocket.ws/?p=1795</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/17/buy-vix-to-protect-market-gains/' addthis:title='Buy VIX To Protect Market Gains '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div>The stock market hit and then furiously bounced off a low on March 9th. Since then it has shot up about 30% nearly uninterrupted. Hope abounds that we may be emerging from one of the worst economic disasters in 20+ years. By many measures the frantic chaos of the last year appears to be subsiding, [...]<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/17/buy-vix-to-protect-market-gains/' addthis:title='Buy VIX To Protect Market Gains ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div></p><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/17/buy-vix-to-protect-market-gains/">Buy VIX To Protect Market Gains</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/17/buy-vix-to-protect-market-gains/' addthis:title='Buy VIX To Protect Market Gains '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div><p>The stock market hit and then furiously bounced off a low on March 9th. Since then it has shot up about 30% nearly uninterrupted. Hope abounds that we may be emerging from one of the worst economic disasters in 20+ years. By many measures the frantic chaos of the last year appears to be subsiding, particularly when looking at the resurgence of corporate earnings, stock prices, and declining value of the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). Yet it is at times like these when it makes most sense to buy insurance, and it just happens to be cheaper than it has been in a long time.<span id="more-1795"></span></p>
<p>Housing collapsed, lots of people lost their jobs, banks folded, the investment banking industry as we knew it is dead, and the public Treasury has been used in ways rarely seen in U.S. history. Unless you&#8217;ve been locked up in a bomb shelter for the last year you know the story. Then on March 10th something strange happened-the market launched into a furious reversal, sending stocks up about 30%:</p>
<p><a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/3-month-stock-performance-041709.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1797" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/3-month-stock-performance-041709.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="337" /></a></p>
<p>During the same period the VIX is down 32% (40% for the last 3 months):</p>
<p><a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/3-month-vix-041709.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1798" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/3-month-vix-041709.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="332" /></a></p>
<p>For those of you who track the VIX, you&#8217;ll remember that on November 20th 2008 it reached a high of just over 80. Falling to its current level of just under 34 seems like a miracle compared to the psychology of doom that persisted just a few months ago.</p>
<p>Many investors, myself included, use VIX as a hedge on stock positions. When market volatility increases-usually when stocks are falling fast and fear dominates-VIX moves higher. To protect your stock investments a reasonable strategy is to buy long VIX. Stocks gets slammed, VIX goes higher.</p>
<p>Since 2001 the VIX has never made it far above 80, even during the dot-com crash and 9/11 tragedy. So when the index peaked at 80 in November it was probably not a good time to use it as a form of portfolio insurance. However, with the VIX back to within &#8220;normal&#8221; historical range, and even below the 200-day simple moving average of 44, we should once again be considering using the index as portfolio insurance.</p>
<p>Lock in your gains and protect your portfolio-greedy pigs get slaughtered. Recall the Latin proverb by Vegetius: &#8220;Si vis pacem, para bellum.&#8221;</p>
<p><strong>If you liked this article and would like to read more like it <a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/emailverifySubmit?feedId=1096073" target="_blank">subscribe to E-mail updates</a></strong>.</p>
<p>Learn about the real causes of the financial crisis and how to profit from the storm yet to come! <a href="http://astore.amazon.com/thefrefac-20/detail/0470043601" target="_blank"><strong>Crash Proof</strong></a>, written by Peter Schiff, is one of the best books on the subject. Peter Schiff is a legend for accurately predicting the real estate collapse, subprime mortgage meltdown, and stock market fallout.</p>
<p>The Federal Reserve is creating tens of trillions of new dollars, debasing our currency, and silently taxing us all through inflation. With tens of trillions in federal budget deficits on the horizon there is nowhere for the US dollar to go, but down. Refuse to be a victim of this flawed financial system, buy gold and silver NOW!<br />
<a href="http://www.bullionvault.com/#robviglione"><img src="http://www.bullionvault.com/images/adverts/Buy_Gold_Today_Banner.gif" alt="Buy gold online - quickly, safely and at low prices" border="0" width="468" height="60"></a></p>
<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/17/buy-vix-to-protect-market-gains/' addthis:title='Buy VIX To Protect Market Gains ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/17/buy-vix-to-protect-market-gains/">Buy VIX To Protect Market Gains</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<slash:comments>6</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Weighing Credit Contraction Against Money Creation</title>
		<link>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/13/weighing-credit-contraction-against-money-creation/</link>
		<comments>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/13/weighing-credit-contraction-against-money-creation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Apr 2009 03:56:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manhattan Beach Observer</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://freedomfactory.skyrocket.ws/?p=1773</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/13/weighing-credit-contraction-against-money-creation/' addthis:title='Weighing Credit Contraction Against Money Creation '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div>There are two colossal events occurring in the world right now: Private credit and wealth is being destroyed, and in its place a good deal of money is being created. Much is taking place behind the scenes, driving this epic showdown between natural forces pushing for a return to sustainable equilibrium pitted against the full [...]<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/13/weighing-credit-contraction-against-money-creation/' addthis:title='Weighing Credit Contraction Against Money Creation ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div></p><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/13/weighing-credit-contraction-against-money-creation/">Weighing Credit Contraction Against Money Creation</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/13/weighing-credit-contraction-against-money-creation/' addthis:title='Weighing Credit Contraction Against Money Creation '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div><p>There are two colossal events occurring in the world right now: <strong>Private credit and wealth is being destroyed, and in its place a good deal of money is being created</strong>. Much is taking place behind the scenes, driving this epic showdown between natural forces pushing for a return to sustainable equilibrium pitted against the full arsenal of man&#8217;s capability to resist.  Just as the fog of war can obscure a battlefield until the end, the outcome of this struggle is far from clear. Nonetheless, there are some telling events to note, signs for which to watch, and consequences to mull.<span id="more-1773"></span></p>
<p>This struggle boils down to whether we will have inflation or deflation. If more credit is destroyed than money is created, prices fall monetarily and we have deflation. If the converse is true, prices rise due to more money chasing either fixed or decreased real economic output. Consider the variables in the general money equation:</p>
<p><a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/money-equation.png"><img class="alignnone size-medium wp-image-1602" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/money-equation.png" alt="" width="122" height="18" /></a></p>
<p>&#8220;M&#8221; is the total money supply, &#8220;V&#8221; is the velocity of money, &#8220;P&#8221; is the general price level, and &#8220;Q&#8221; is total expenditures, or real economic output.</p>
<p>Rearranging, we find that P = (M * V) / Q. Isolating this relationship, we can make some observations, as I&#8217;ve already done in <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/decomposing-the-inflation-argument/" target="_self">Decomposing the Inflation Argument</a>: In the U.S., alone,</p>
<p>1) Money supply (M) has increased by at least <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=ah4JtpnBRIbk&amp;refer=home" target="_blank">$13 trillion in the last 16 months,<br />
</a></p>
<p>2) Economic output (Q), as measured by annualized GDP, is <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/28/business/economy/28econ.html?hp" target="_blank">falling at a 6.8% rate</a>,</p>
<p>3) Government is doing everything in its power to boost velocity (V): TARP ($700 billion), mortgage bailouts ($50 billion), <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/20/business/20lend.html?_r=1&amp;hp" target="_blank">$1.1 trillion hedge fund subsidy</a> to buy consumer-backed debt, $787 billion for the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act, and this is only 100 days into the Obama Administration.</p>
<p>The question remains as to whether velocity can be revived sufficiently to prevent deflation? For that we need to have some idea of how much wealth has been lost in the Great Unwinding. The NY Times reported that U.S. <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/13/business/economy/13wealth.html" target="_blank">household wealth dropped $11.1 trillion</a> in 2008.</p>
<p>An excellent analysis by the Hoisington Investment Management Company, published in their <a href="http://www.hoisingtonmgt.com/pdf/HIM2008Q4NP.pdf" target="_blank">Q4 Review and Outlook</a>, shows that in the world&#8217;s three more recent debt deflations (dating back to the 1870&#8242;s) &#8220;the low in long-term interest rates occurred about 15 years after the end of the debt mania.&#8221; Translating this to today&#8217;s scenario, <strong>Hoisington postulates we could be caught in a period of declining long-term interest rates thru the early 2020&#8242;s</strong>.</p>
<p>On the other side of the argument, we have two significant observations:</p>
<p>1) The Congressional Budget Office calculates Obama&#8217;s budget will take us at least <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/21/washington/21deficit.html?_r=1&amp;hp" target="_blank">$9.3 trillion further into debt</a> over the next decade,</p>
<p>2) Our largest creditors, China and Japan, are daily losing capability to lend us money as their exports shrink. <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aomURJHB5MAE&amp;refer=home" target="_blank">China&#8217;s economic growth</a> is cooling to the lowest point in 10 years, and they have actually become <a href="http://www.cnbc.com/id/30190718" target="_blank">net sellers of U.S. debt</a> in January and February. Japan&#8217;s current account is expected to turn negative for the first time since WWII later this year.</p>
<p><strong>What this means is that at a time when America is begging to borrow the most it has ever borrowed, the rest of the world is least capable of providing those funds</strong>. There are only two eventualities to solve this problem: The Federal Reserve creates money to &#8220;buy&#8221; Treasury securities, or interest rates rise sufficiently to attract private capital. <strong>The net effect will be inflationary</strong>.</p>
<p><strong>The consequences of this epic struggle threaten to change our society regardless of how it unfolds</strong>. Private capital is being destroyed and replaced with political capital. Government has long ceased to operate within the constraints of the Constitution and is daily expanding its own power. The Founders never envisioned a central authority with the power to create money, socially engineer inflation or deflation, or bail out auto manufacturers, mortgagees, or banks. <strong></strong></p>
<p><strong>Every dollar borrowed and spent places an implicit tax obligation on future private earnings</strong>-this burden is growing seemingly without limit. This represents an unprecedented transfer of wealth from taxpayers to bankers and other political beneficiaries. Unemployment is artificially kept in check by expansion of government bureaucracies. Should the government succeed in sparking inflation, it could end up overshooting targets and robbing prudent savers of their life&#8217;s work.</p>
<p>We are playing games with our nation&#8217;s future and changing our political structure. All this to alter reality and prevent economic correction to sustainable equilibrium. As Al Pacino said in Devil&#8217;s Advocate, &#8220;Vanity is my favorite sin.&#8221;</p>
<p>SPECIAL OFFERS</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">The Federal Reserve is creating tens of trillions of new dollars</span>, debasing our currency, and <strong>silently taxing us all through inflation</strong>. With tens of trillions in federal budget deficits on the horizon there is nowhere for the US dollar to go, but down.<br />
<a href="http://www.bullionvault.com/#robviglione"><img src="http://www.bullionvault.com/images/adverts/Buy_Gold_Today_Banner.gif" border="0" alt="Buy gold online - quickly, safely and at low prices" width="468" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Refuse to be a victim of this flawed financial system, buy gold and silver NOW!</p>
<p>With <span style="text-decoration: underline">hyperinflation</span> and risk of <span style="text-decoration: underline">economic disaster</span> increasing with each dollar Congress recklessly spends, it pays to be prepared: Consider <strong>stocking up on Emergency Supplies</strong>:</p>
<p><a href="http://thereadystore.com/freeze-dried-food-storage/ultimate-year-supply-of-freeze-dried-food-10-cans?aid=4b6612785c8c0&amp;bid=5d60a2f8" target="_top"><img src="http://www.thereadystore.com/affiliate/accounts/default1/banners/728x90uys.png" alt="Ultimate Year Supply" width="798" height="90" /></a><img style="border:0" src="http://www.thereadystore.com/affiliate/scripts/imp.php?aid=4b6612785c8c0&amp;bid=5d60a2f8" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p>
<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/13/weighing-credit-contraction-against-money-creation/' addthis:title='Weighing Credit Contraction Against Money Creation ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/13/weighing-credit-contraction-against-money-creation/">Weighing Credit Contraction Against Money Creation</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>How The Government Is Fixing The Economy</title>
		<link>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/12/how-the-government-is-fixing-the-economy/</link>
		<comments>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/12/how-the-government-is-fixing-the-economy/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 13 Apr 2009 03:04:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manhattan Beach Observer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://freedomfactory.skyrocket.ws/?p=1769</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/12/how-the-government-is-fixing-the-economy/' addthis:title='How The Government Is Fixing The Economy '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div>Never seen before footage INSIDE the U.S. Department of the Treasury! Learn how the federal government is fixing our economy: SPECIAL OFFERS The Federal Reserve is creating tens of trillions of new dollars, debasing our currency, and silently taxing us all through inflation. With tens of trillions in federal budget deficits on the horizon there [...]<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/12/how-the-government-is-fixing-the-economy/' addthis:title='How The Government Is Fixing The Economy ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div></p><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/12/how-the-government-is-fixing-the-economy/">How The Government Is Fixing The Economy</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/12/how-the-government-is-fixing-the-economy/' addthis:title='How The Government Is Fixing The Economy '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div><p>Never seen before footage INSIDE the U.S. Department of the Treasury! Learn how the federal government is fixing our economy:</p>
<p>SPECIAL OFFERS</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">The Federal Reserve is creating tens of trillions of new dollars</span>, debasing our currency, and <strong>silently taxing us all through inflation</strong>. With tens of trillions in federal budget deficits on the horizon there is nowhere for the US dollar to go, but down.<br />
<a href="http://www.bullionvault.com/#robviglione"><img src="http://www.bullionvault.com/images/adverts/Buy_Gold_Today_Banner.gif" border="0" alt="Buy gold online - quickly, safely and at low prices" width="468" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Refuse to be a victim of this flawed financial system, buy gold and silver NOW!</p>
<p>With <span style="text-decoration: underline">hyperinflation</span> and risk of <span style="text-decoration: underline">economic disaster</span> increasing with each dollar Congress recklessly spends, it pays to be prepared: Consider <strong>stocking up on Emergency Supplies</strong>:</p>
<p><a href="http://thereadystore.com/freeze-dried-food-storage/ultimate-year-supply-of-freeze-dried-food-10-cans?aid=4b6612785c8c0&amp;bid=5d60a2f8" target="_top"><img src="http://www.thereadystore.com/affiliate/accounts/default1/banners/728x90uys.png" alt="Ultimate Year Supply" width="798" height="90" /></a><img style="border:0" src="http://www.thereadystore.com/affiliate/scripts/imp.php?aid=4b6612785c8c0&amp;bid=5d60a2f8" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p>
<p><!--Session data--></p>
<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/12/how-the-government-is-fixing-the-economy/' addthis:title='How The Government Is Fixing The Economy ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/12/how-the-government-is-fixing-the-economy/">How The Government Is Fixing The Economy</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Do You Trust Big Brother With Your Portfolio?</title>
		<link>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/05/do-you-trust-government-with-your-portfolio/</link>
		<comments>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/05/do-you-trust-government-with-your-portfolio/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 06 Apr 2009 07:36:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manhattan Beach Observer</dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://freedomfactory.skyrocket.ws/?p=1750</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/05/do-you-trust-government-with-your-portfolio/' addthis:title='Do You Trust Big Brother With Your Portfolio? '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div>We are moving closer towards a political economy every day. Every dollar borrowed, taxed, printed, and spent by government really comes from the private sector.  Trillions of dollars of national resources are being allocated by politicians and bureaucrats towards things they claim will benefit our economy. Congress just passed a $3.6 trillion budget ($1.2 trillion [...]<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/05/do-you-trust-government-with-your-portfolio/' addthis:title='Do You Trust Big Brother With Your Portfolio? ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div></p><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/05/do-you-trust-government-with-your-portfolio/">Do You Trust Big Brother With Your Portfolio?</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/05/do-you-trust-government-with-your-portfolio/' addthis:title='Do You Trust Big Brother With Your Portfolio? '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div><p>We are moving closer towards a political economy every day. Every dollar borrowed, taxed, printed, and spent by government really comes from the private sector.  Trillions of dollars of national resources are being allocated by politicians and bureaucrats towards things they claim will benefit our economy. Congress just passed a $3.6 trillion budget ($1.2 trillion in deficit), and combined the Federal Reserve and Treasury have <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=ah4JtpnBRIbk&amp;refer=home" target="_blank">dumped $13 trillion into the economy</a> in the last 16 months. What we must all ask ourselves right now is whether or not we trust government with our money?<span id="more-1750"></span></p>
<p>The stock market certainly seems to believe in Big Brother:</p>
<p><a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/march-stock-rally.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1751" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/march-stock-rally.jpg" alt="" width="500" height="276" /></a></p>
<p>Since the absolute low in early March, the Nasdaq is up 27.8%, the S&amp;P 500 is up 24.5%, and the Dow Industrial Average is up 22.5%. These are massive gains in an extremely short period of time. Are we finally seeing results from TARP and the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act? Is Congress doing something right, and is the market finally warming up to President Obama?</p>
<p>We trust government for so much these days. We have the military, police forces, regulations, laws, courts, Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, welfare, and myriad other programs upon which we have come to depend. Soon we&#8217;ll need government to run our health care, regulate carbon emissions, tell cows how much they can fart, and give us permission to take <a href="http://www.foxnews.com/politics/first100days/2009/04/05/obama-calls-limits-tourism-antarctica/">sight-seeing trips to Antarctica</a>! <strong>But how much do we really need of some adults to tell other adults what to do</strong>? That is, after all, what government boils down to.</p>
<p>Being that <strong>government officials are drawn from the same population pool as everyone else</strong>, we ought to question their omnipotence. Are they fallible just like you and I? Or does winning an election or securing a federal union job suddenly strip one of human vice?</p>
<p>In &#8220;<a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/contributing-factors-to-the-housing-boom/" target="_blank">Contributing Factors To The Housing Boom</a>&#8221; I wrote that multiple layers of government caused the housing troubles currently tearing apart our economy. Without the Federal Reserve pumping up the money supply, without Congress creating Fannie and Freddie and mandating they provide junk loans to people who had no chance of repaying them, and without local and state micro-regulators dictating everything from building sizes to where and how you could build, <strong>the housing market may have simply functioned like any other market</strong>. We didn&#8217;t exactly witness cheese prices behaving &#8220;irrationally exuberantly&#8221; over the last decade!</p>
<p>So if we accept that the people running government are fallible, and that they even have some blame in the distorted, crashing economy in which we are all forced to eke a living, <strong>we ought to question all the assumptions they expect us to take for granted</strong>. Maybe Americans should cut back on spending and save? Maybe interest rates should float higher to represent scarcity of capital for real economic activities? Maybe <a href="http://www.nytimes.com/2009/03/21/washington/21deficit.html?_r=1&amp;hp" target="_blank">adding another $10 trillion to the national debt</a> over the course of the next decade is not a good thing?</p>
<p>If you think that what government is doing is good-if you trust them with your life&#8217;s savings, then go ahead and listen to your regular financial adviser. Roll your savings back into the stock market. Buy government bonds. Oh, and don&#8217;t forget to buy another SUV, a bigger house, line your walls with gold the IMF is selling, and buy yourself that marble floor you&#8217;ve always wanted! The good times will return!</p>
<p>Or maybe they won&#8217;t. <strong>Our government and the Federal Reserve are rolling dice with our futures</strong>. They are playing games with our currency, and <strong>they are betting that their blind spending of confiscated trillions will magically restore our economy</strong> to pre-crisis conditions. This is a tall order!</p>
<p>Should you suddenly become suspicious, here are a few things you can do to protect yourself:</p>
<p>1) <strong>Avoid non-dividend paying stocks</strong>. Seek yield in everything you do. Stocks are decent inflation hedges since companies can increase prices to compensate, but you should avoid stocks that retain 100% of earnings. Retained earnings are essentially bets that the company can earn sufficiently high returns on incremental capital expenditures. In a tough business environment this becomes less realistic.</p>
<p>2) <strong>Buy short-term debt instruments</strong>. Avoid long-term maturity bonds since increasing inflation will wipe out coupon payments and resale value on the secondary market. The big exception to this is if you require a fixed income for living expenses for which the current risk-adjusted yield provides. If you can lock in rates you know you can live on, by all means do so.</p>
<p>3) <strong>Buy real estate</strong>. During an inflationary environment you want to be a net debtor holding fixed rate liabilities. Each new dollar printed makes all the others less valuable, so you might as well use this to your advantage-repay fixed rate debt with less valuable dollars in the future. The second benefit of real estate is that rents can grow with inflation, so long as your tenants do not hold long-term leases already locked in at pre-inflation terms.</p>
<p>4) <strong>Treasury Inflation Protected Securities</strong> (<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=tip&amp;=" target="_blank">TIP</a>). These are Treasury securities with fixed real returns supplemented by an inflation premium. These are good so long as the government issuing them remains solvent. To diversify this risk consider the international equivalent, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=wip" target="_blank">WIP</a>.</p>
<p>5) <strong>Commodities</strong>. When the world can no longer trust our paper money people turn to commodities as a refuge. Commodities are tangible and have real utility, unlike government paper. Gold and silver are traditionally viewed as currency replacements, agricultural goods always have value in that people must eat, and energy holds the world together. Consider <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/hl?s=DBC" target="_blank">DBC</a>, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=uso&amp;=" target="_blank">USO</a>, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gld&amp;=" target="_blank">GLD</a>, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=slv&amp;=" target="_blank">SLV</a>, <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q/pr?s=GSG" target="_blank">GSG</a>, and <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=dba" target="_blank">DBA</a>, to name a few.</p>
<p>If you&#8217;re really savvy and feeling bold you could short the market, hedge with VIX, or join a local militia.</p>
<p>SPECIAL OFFERS</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline">The Federal Reserve is creating tens of trillions of new dollars</span>, debasing our currency, and <strong>silently taxing us all through inflation</strong>. With tens of trillions in federal budget deficits on the horizon there is nowhere for the US dollar to go, but down.<br />
<a href="http://www.bullionvault.com/#robviglione"><img src="http://www.bullionvault.com/images/adverts/Buy_Gold_Today_Banner.gif" border="0" alt="Buy gold online - quickly, safely and at low prices" width="468" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Refuse to be a victim of this flawed financial system, buy gold and silver NOW!</p>
<p>With <span style="text-decoration: underline">hyperinflation</span> and risk of <span style="text-decoration: underline">economic disaster</span> increasing with each dollar Congress recklessly spends, it pays to be prepared: Consider <strong>stocking up on Emergency Supplies</strong>:</p>
<p><a href="http://thereadystore.com/freeze-dried-food-storage/ultimate-year-supply-of-freeze-dried-food-10-cans?aid=4b6612785c8c0&amp;bid=5d60a2f8" target="_top"><img src="http://www.thereadystore.com/affiliate/accounts/default1/banners/728x90uys.png" alt="Ultimate Year Supply" width="798" height="90" /></a><img style="border:0" src="http://www.thereadystore.com/affiliate/scripts/imp.php?aid=4b6612785c8c0&amp;bid=5d60a2f8" alt="" width="1" height="1" /></p>
<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/05/do-you-trust-government-with-your-portfolio/' addthis:title='Do You Trust Big Brother With Your Portfolio? ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/04/05/do-you-trust-government-with-your-portfolio/">Do You Trust Big Brother With Your Portfolio?</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Time to Revisit Inflation: CPI and The Fed</title>
		<link>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/18/time-to-revisit-inflation-cpi-up-and-fed-buying-treasuries/</link>
		<comments>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/18/time-to-revisit-inflation-cpi-up-and-fed-buying-treasuries/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Mar 2009 20:04:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manhattan Beach Observer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[30-Year Treasuries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ben Bernanke]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[bonds]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[budget deficit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chairman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[checkmate]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[congress]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Consumer Price Index]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[CPI]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[federal reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fixed income]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[free enterprise]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GDX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GLD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[idiocy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money supply]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[national debt]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[nationalization]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[printing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[protectionism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rob Viglione]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[socialism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[treasuries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://freedomfactory.skyrocket.ws/?p=1665</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/18/time-to-revisit-inflation-cpi-up-and-fed-buying-treasuries/' addthis:title='Time to Revisit Inflation: CPI and The Fed '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div>The verdict is not yet out as to whether we will experience inflation or deflation in the near term. The argument has been raging with pundits on both sides clinging to data they claim supports their guesses. Today marks a big day in the debate, however, with two critical pieces of news: 1) Consumer price [...]<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/18/time-to-revisit-inflation-cpi-up-and-fed-buying-treasuries/' addthis:title='Time to Revisit Inflation: CPI and The Fed ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div></p><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/18/time-to-revisit-inflation-cpi-up-and-fed-buying-treasuries/">Time to Revisit Inflation: CPI and The Fed</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/18/time-to-revisit-inflation-cpi-up-and-fed-buying-treasuries/' addthis:title='Time to Revisit Inflation: CPI and The Fed '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div><p>The verdict is not yet out as to whether we will experience inflation or deflation in the near term. The argument has been raging with pundits on both sides clinging to data they claim supports their guesses. Today marks a big day in the debate, however, with two critical pieces of news:</p>
<p>1) <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=a96UYa3hNIh0&amp;refer=home">Consumer price index (CPI) rises more than expected</a>, up 0.4% in Feb. following a 0.3% gain in Jan. This represents at 4.8% annualized inflation rate.</p>
<p>2) <a href="http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&amp;sid=aFLb.2NM2vtY&amp;refer=home" target="_blank">Federal Reserve committed to buying $300 billion in long-term Treasuries</a> as part of its plan to drive consumer borrowing costs lower.</p>
<p>The immediate fallout can be seen in Gold, the U.S. dollar, and Treasuries today. Both pieces of news are inflationary. Rather than the feared &#8216;deflationary spiral&#8217; we&#8217;re starting to see consumer prices heat up, albeit not appreciately just yet. The Fed buying Treasuries amounts to them printing $300 billion in new currency. This money is created out of thin air.</p>
<p>Most telling on inflationary fears is the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gdx&amp;=" target="_blank">GDX</a>), up over 10% today, while the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gld&amp;=" target="_blank">GLD</a>) approached a 4% gain. PowerShares US Dollar Index (<a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=UUP&amp;=" target="_blank">UUP</a>) dropped over 3%, and the <a href="http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=^tyx&amp;=" target="_blank">30-Year Treasury</a> yield fell to a low of 3.37% after the Fed announcement, settling higher at 3.57% later in the day.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/checkmate-how-the-federal-government-will-lose-in-2009/" target="_blank">Checkmate: How the Federal Government Will Lose in 2009</a> I argued that our leaders were backing public finances into a predictable corner. With $2-3 trillion in budget deficit for 2009, alone, with more planned in coming years, government will be forced to increase borrowing or printing. Today&#8217;s news supports the &#8216;printing&#8217; hypothesis, but I suspect this is just the beginning. <strong>The big game unfolding will be the Treasury issuing bonds to raise funds and the Fed turning around and buying them</strong>. This is a scam that will either lead to increasing bond yields or increasing inflation. There are no other options.</p>
<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/18/time-to-revisit-inflation-cpi-up-and-fed-buying-treasuries/' addthis:title='Time to Revisit Inflation: CPI and The Fed ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/18/time-to-revisit-inflation-cpi-up-and-fed-buying-treasuries/">Time to Revisit Inflation: CPI and The Fed</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Decomposing the Inflation Argument</title>
		<link>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/08/decomposing-the-inflation-argument/</link>
		<comments>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/08/decomposing-the-inflation-argument/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 08 Mar 2009 23:51:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manhattan Beach Observer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[1913]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[aggregate output]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[arrogance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[cash]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[collectivism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[commodities]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[currency]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[deflationary]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[federal reserve]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiscal policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[fiscal prudence]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[general price level]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[gold standard]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[guns & butter]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[historical inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflationary policies]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Keynes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[keynesian policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[M3]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[macro-economics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[monetary policy]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money identity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[money supply]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[perpetual inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[perpetual prosperity]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[quantity theory of money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[real value of final expenditures]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rob Viglione]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Savings]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[shadow statistics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[silver]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[socialism]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[socially engineer society]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[standard of living]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[U.S. dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[USD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[value of the dollar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[velocity of money]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vietnam War]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://freedomfactory.skyrocket.ws/?p=1596</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/08/decomposing-the-inflation-argument/' addthis:title='Decomposing the Inflation Argument '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div>Inflation has long been a contentious topic in the U.S., not really abating at any point since the 1960&#8242;s. President Johnson&#8217;s &#8220;Guns &#38; Butter&#8221; policies of the Vietnam war era sparked a good deal of money printing, inflation, and debate. Since then the Federal Reserve, Congress, and every President have gone on spending binges, rampant [...]<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/08/decomposing-the-inflation-argument/' addthis:title='Decomposing the Inflation Argument ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div></p><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/08/decomposing-the-inflation-argument/">Decomposing the Inflation Argument</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/08/decomposing-the-inflation-argument/' addthis:title='Decomposing the Inflation Argument '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div><p>Inflation has long been a contentious topic in the U.S., not really abating at any point since the 1960&#8242;s. President Johnson&#8217;s &#8220;Guns &amp; Butter&#8221; policies of the Vietnam war era sparked a good deal of money printing, inflation, and debate. Since then the Federal Reserve, Congress, and every President have gone on spending binges, rampant borrowing, and always increasing money supply. These are the tools of macro-economics, in which central decision authorities nationalize resources to socially engineer what they think will be perpetual prosperity. The results are debatable, but the consequences clear: <span id="more-1596"></span></p>
<p>The currency component of the money supply has risen roughly 1,400% since America eradicated the gold standard and institutionalized Keynesian policy:</p>
<p><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/5/51/Currency_component_of_the_US_money_supply_1959-2007.gif" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1597" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/currency_component_of_the_us_money_supply_1959-2007.gif" alt="" width="500" height="380" /></a></p>
<p>Despite such extreme increases in the currency component of money supply, inflation has remained somewhat in check:</p>
<p><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/2/20/US_Historical_Inflation_Ancient.svg" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1598" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/historical_inflation_ancientsvg.png" alt="" width="500" height="250" /></a></p>
<p>Note that despite peaks and downturns, <strong>inflation has not once dipped into negative territory</strong> since the Great Depression. Inflation, along with Keynesian policy, has become institutionalized-an aspect of life we have come to expect. There are consequences to perpetual inflation, however: the U.S. dollar has lost 97.8% of its value since the creation of the Federal Reserve:</p>
<p><a href="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/c/c9/Dollar_value_chart.gif" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1599" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/dollar_value_chart.gif" alt="" width="453" height="277" /></a></p>
<p>In 1913-the year of the creation of the Federal Reserve-one ounce of gold could be purchased for $20.67, whereas now it costs $939.2 (spot price, as of 3/8/09). This reality has several negative consequences, particularly with regards to the incentives it imposes on society. <strong>Saving and its corresponding fiscal prudence are discouraged under a regime of perpetual inflation</strong>. Despite increases in productive capacity, as a society, real wages lag and the middle class suffers decreasing standards of living, particularly when debt-adjustments are factored.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.shadowstats.com/charts_republish#m3" target="_blank"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1601" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/m3-money-supply.gif" alt="" width="500" height="320" /></a></p>
<p>M3, the broadest definition of money supply, has experienced a decreasing rate of growth, sure, but is still growing at about a 10% clip. That is not deflationary.</p>
<p>Still, money supply is not the only determinant of inflation. To garner greater understanding of where we stand we must analyze the quantity theory of money identity:</p>
<p><a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/money-equation.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1602" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/money-equation.png" alt="" width="122" height="18" /></a></p>
<p>&#8220;M&#8221; is the quantity of money, &#8220;V&#8221; is the velocity of money, &#8220;P&#8221; is the general price level, and &#8220;Q&#8221; measures the real value of final expenditures, or output.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s rearrange and note that our variable of interest, &#8220;P&#8221; can be stated as: P = (M * V) / Q</p>
<p>We know that money supply (M) is increasing rather rapidly. Many experts contend that the velocity of money (V) is contracting, and we all know that economic output (Q) is on the decline. So the question becomes, will M/Q or V be the dominant expression?</p>
<p>My contention is that velocity of money may be suppressed sufficiently to offset growth in M/Q, but can turn on a dime.</p>
<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/08/decomposing-the-inflation-argument/' addthis:title='Decomposing the Inflation Argument ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/03/08/decomposing-the-inflation-argument/">Decomposing the Inflation Argument</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Great time to hedge your gold bets</title>
		<link>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/02/12/great-time-to-hedge-your-gold-bets/</link>
		<comments>http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/02/12/great-time-to-hedge-your-gold-bets/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 13 Feb 2009 06:27:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Manhattan Beach Observer</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Investing]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[buy gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GDX]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GLD]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[GLL]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[hedge gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[inflation]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[long gold]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Options]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[portfolio insurance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[puts]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[risk management]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rob Viglione]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[sell calls]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[short gold]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://freedomfactory.skyrocket.ws/?p=1402</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[<p><div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/02/12/great-time-to-hedge-your-gold-bets/' addthis:title='Great time to hedge your gold bets '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div>Funny things have been going on in markets for some time now. Stocks, corporate bonds, commodities, and currencies were decimated in 2008, with the volatility threatening to persist into the New Year. There&#8217;s talk of deflation, inflation, stagflation, defaults, bankruptcies, layoffs, unemployment, and the best word of the year: de-leveraging. Wait, is that even a [...]<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/02/12/great-time-to-hedge-your-gold-bets/' addthis:title='Great time to hedge your gold bets ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div></p><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/02/12/great-time-to-hedge-your-gold-bets/">Great time to hedge your gold bets</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style " addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/02/12/great-time-to-hedge-your-gold-bets/' addthis:title='Great time to hedge your gold bets '  ><a class="addthis_button_facebook_like" fb:like:layout="button_count"></a><a class="addthis_button_tweet"></a><a class="addthis_button_google_plusone" g:plusone:size="medium"></a><a class="addthis_counter addthis_pill_style"></a></div><p><a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/gold-bullion1.jpg"><img class="alignleft size-thumbnail wp-image-1403" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/gold-bullion1-150x150.jpg" alt="" width="150" height="150" /></a>Funny things have been going on in markets for some time now. Stocks, corporate bonds, commodities, and currencies were decimated in 2008, with the volatility threatening to persist into the New Year. There&#8217;s talk of deflation, inflation, stagflation, defaults, bankruptcies, layoffs, unemployment, and the best word of the year: de-leveraging. Wait, is that even a word?</p>
<p>The only thing we know is that we don&#8217;t really know what&#8217;s happening or where it&#8217;ll take us. The more confused people become the more gold they buy. In fact, from peak to trough gold (GLD) has risen 52% over the last 52 weeks. With this kind of bull run, it makes sense to lodge a small bet in the other direction.<span id="more-1402"></span></p>
<p>This rise has been sharp. Over the last three months GLD is up 27%:</p>
<p><a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/three-month-gold-return-021209.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1404" src="http://thefreedomfactory.us/files/three-month-gold-return-021209.jpg" alt="" width="499" height="321" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Gold is the only currency that has proven it can withstand the ravages of time and public officials</strong>. According to Bill Bonner and Addison Wiggin in <a href="http://astore.amazon.com/thefrefac-20/detail/047198048X" target="_blank">Empire of Debt</a>:</p>
<blockquote><p><strong>A gold denarius is still about as valuable as it was when Caesar conquered Gaul.</strong></p></blockquote>
<p>Contrast that with the US dollar, which has lost 95% of its purchasing power since the Federal Reserve was created in 1913.</p>
<p>With $12 trillion in public debt, $50 trillion to $70 trillion in unfunded liabilities for Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, <a href="http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/11/26/MNVN14C8QR.DTL" target="_blank">$8.5 trillion</a> in new money created in 2008, and a $2 trillion budget deficit in 2009, it should leave us all with a sense of bewilderment. Is our government falling down the same trap as every other that has issued paper currency in history? Or is this fancy, high stakes game of financial craps going to work out and leave us all better off in the end?</p>
<p>The gold market is starting to bet against the politicians and bureaucrats. My guess is that it will continue to do so and gold may soar to parity with the Dow Jones Industrial Average. That&#8217;s simply my guess, of course, but my portfolio rests firmly on that thesis. I don&#8217;t buy the elaborate arguments with big words and complicated phrases like &#8220;quantitative easing,&#8221; &#8220;reserve currency,&#8221; and &#8220;velocity of money.&#8221;In my simple mind, if you expand the money supply while productive output declines you debase the currency. When paper currencies go, gold gets going.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, with all the emotional opinions on both sides of the argument, playing the gold market is becoming increasingly risky. Regardless of which side you play, <strong>it is worth buying insurance in case you&#8217;re wrong</strong>. Personally, I have begun hedging my gold bets with long term (January 2011) put options on GLD. I bought them significantly out-of-the-money (OTM) to act as nothing more than catastrophe insurance.</p>
<p>There are a few other ways to hedge gold:</p>
<ul>
<li>UltraShort Gold ProShares (GLL)</li>
<li>Buy puts / sell calls on GLD or GDX</li>
<li>Sell futures (ZG or YG) or trade futures options</li>
</ul>
<p>With only $23 million in net assets, I&#8217;m not a fan of GLL; however, a quick look at its pricing chart shows that it does a decent job mimicking the double inverse of GLD.</p>
<p>GDX is a composite index of gold miners, so its price has dependency to equity markets. If inflation kicks in it could boost nominal equity prices and GDX could benefit from both gold and equity gains. Deflation and falling gold prices could have the reciprocal affect.</p>
<p>Futures options for gold contracts present a rather illiquid market, unfortunately. Best to stick with GLD put options if you want to hedge gold prices. You could sell calls, but then again, if you&#8217;re right it would be a shame to limit your upside!</p>
<p><strong>If you liked this article and would like to read more like it <a href="http://www.feedburner.com/fb/a/emailverifySubmit?feedId=1096073" target="_blank">subscribe to E-mail updates</a></strong>.</p>
<p>Learn about the real causes of the financial crisis and how to profit from the storm yet to come! <a href="http://astore.amazon.com/thefrefac-20/detail/0470043601" target="_blank"><strong>Crash Proof</strong></a>, written by Peter Schiff, is one of the best books on the subject. Peter Schiff is a legend for accurately predicting the real estate collapse, subprime mortgage meltdown, and stock market fallout.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://www.learnobamanomics.com/book"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-1706" src="../files/obamanomics-advertisement.jpg" alt="" width="180" height="150" /></a></p>
<p>Obamas at it again-spending tens of billions on investments he thinks will make America better off in the long run. Whether or not these government investments pay off, trillions of dollars of resource are being transferred throughout the economy. Read my book, <a href="http://www.learnobamanomics.com/book" target="_blank"><strong>Obamanomics: How To Invest Over the Next Administration</strong></a> to <em>learn how to make government policy work for you</em>!</p>
<div class="addthis_toolbox addthis_default_style addthis_32x32_style" addthis:url='http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/02/12/great-time-to-hedge-your-gold-bets/' addthis:title='Great time to hedge your gold bets ' ><a class="addthis_button_preferred_1"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_2"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_3"></a><a class="addthis_button_preferred_4"></a><a class="addthis_button_compact"></a></div><p>You just finished reading <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us/2009/02/12/great-time-to-hedge-your-gold-bets/">Great time to hedge your gold bets</a> on <a href="http://thefreedomfactory.us">The Freedom Factory</a>. Please consider leaving a comment!</p>]]></content:encoded>
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