Tag Archive | "Fannie Mae"

Homeowner Equity Points Down The Road To Serfdom

The capital structure of US real estate assets has been in a long process of change. By subsidizing real estate and making mortgage debt artificially cheaper than equity capital, the US government has been effectively transferring real estate ownership from individuals to lending institutions and the Federal Reserve. Here’s how this game has been unfolding, and a warning to Americans that they will one day wake up in a country where most people live as feudalistic peasants, beholden to their banking and political overlords. Continue Reading

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Obama Wants To End Mortgage Tax Break

The White House is urging Congress to limit, or cut, the once untouchable tax break for mortgage interest. In traditional class warfare parlance, the White House cap on mortgage interest deductions will fall only upon the “wealthy.” Let’s not drink the Obama Kool-Aid – the effects of this legislative move will impact everyone.

The Obama administration is proposing reducing deductions for homeowners who earn more than $250,000 pear year. Since I’m a southern California Realtor®, I’ll bring up an example from my local market – the South Bay; in particular, Manhattan Beach, CA.

Chart from LA Times Local Neighborhoods.

Manhattan Beach is a wealthy southern California city, nestled along a prime beach-front location. With 38% of Manhattan Beach residents earning over $125,000 per year, we expect this legislative change will materially impact our local market.

When many home buyers calculate the amount of home they can afford, mortgage interest deductions on income factor heavily into capital service capacity, i.e. how much mortgage they can comfortably afford to pay every month. If a high income earner is in the 34% income tax bracket and has a $5,000 per month mortgage, of which, say, roughly $4,000 is comprised of interest payments, the net annual benefit of the tax break is $16,320, or $1,360 per month.

with a simple 5% mortgage rate, the effect of removing the tax break amounts to reducing home values by $326,400, or 34%, the marginal tax rate. These are very simple assumptions; the reality of this legislative change will likely not be as severe. Higher end properties will likely be impacted the most, with falling price levels manifesting in some way throughout the entire housing market.

President Bush attempted to eliminate the mortgage tax break in 2005, but was stopped by Congress. The Obama administration tried this same legislative change with last year’s budget, but met similar obstacles. Given that the real estate market is in such turmoil, and that so many people gain advantage from perpetuating this tax break, it is unlikely the White House proposal will be accepted by Congress.

What Does The Mortgage Tax Break Mean For The Economy?

There is no free lunch in economics – we’ve all heard that term, right? The same is true for tax breaks, or any legislative market manipulation. Enabling borrowers to write off interest payments from their income tax liability increases incentives to borrow money to buy real estate. This ultimately skews capital structures in that less equity investment is made with purchases relative to debt assumption. Increasing debt levels simultaneously increases prices and risk. In essence, the mortgage tax break causes housing to be “over-capitalized,” siphoning disproportionate capital resources from other parts of the economy.

Eliminating the tax break makes good economic sense; however, the result will inevitably be a deflation in housing prices. The magnitude of the deflation is uncertain. Given that real estate markets are already on shaky grounds, reducing, or eliminating, policies that support home prices can potentially lead to a market route.

All things considered, it is too bad President Bush was not able to repeal this tax break in 2005. That was probably the best time to moderate an over-heated market, and realign national capital resources in a relatively stable environment. We may have missed that opportunity for some time.

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Freedom Under Fire, Apr. 8th, 2009

Freedom Under Fire, Apr. 8th, 2009

Big Brother set to take over pre-Kindergarten education, John Stossel points out consequences of government education, $5 billion bailout unrolled for auto suppliers, government hiring Wall Street analysts caught in financial crisis, economists predict deflation will cause mortgage rates will drop to 4.2% by end of year, and Big Brother’s favorite life insurers set to receive bailouts… Continue Reading

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Do You Trust Big Brother With Your Portfolio?

Do You Trust Big Brother With Your Portfolio?

We are moving closer towards a political economy every day. Every dollar borrowed, taxed, printed, and spent by government really comes from the private sector.  Trillions of dollars of national resources are being allocated by politicians and bureaucrats towards things they claim will benefit our economy. Congress just passed a $3.6 trillion budget ($1.2 trillion in deficit), and combined the Federal Reserve and Treasury have dumped $13 trillion into the economy in the last 16 months. What we must all ask ourselves right now is whether or not we trust government with our money? Continue Reading

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Freedom Under Fire, Apr. 3rd, 2009

Freedom Under Fire, Apr. 3rd, 2009

Government detention camps cover up deaths-does America have a human rights problem? Congress passes unprecedented $3.6 trillion budget with $1.2 trillion deficit, official unemployment rates his 8.5%-some economists claiming they are really upwards of 20%, government mortgage giants Fannie and Freddie to pay $159 billion in new bonuses, Obama calls end to ‘Pax Americana’, world leaders pledge $1.1 trillion to IMF, Russia refuses to remove troops from Georgia, NY protesters call for government to ‘Bail out the People’, Hugo Chavez declares that ‘Capitalism must end,’ and Treasuries drop with announcement of next week’s $59 billion note issue and Goldman Sachs estimate that government will need to borrow another $3.25 trillion this year… Continue Reading

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Greenspan Absolves Himself of Wrong-Doing in Housing Bubble

Greenspan Absolves Himself of Wrong-Doing in Housing Bubble

Former Federal Reserve Chairman, Alan Greenspan, published an editorial in the Wall Street Journal today that absolves himself of any wrong-doing in the housing bubble and its subsequent destructive aftermath. Latching onto a weak argument that circa 2002 long-term mortgage and short-term federal funds rates had statistically diverged in correlation, he suggests that the overcapitalization of housing resulting from cheap credit was not his fault. Many critics have pointed the finger at Greenspan for setting short-term rates too low for too long. Access to cheap credit, according to critics, sparked “irrational exuberance” in the housing market, flooding the sector with unprecedented capital and driving prices to ridiculous levels.

Rather, Greenspan blames global trade in boosting foreign savings rates and leaving the U.S. with large current account imbalances that were subsidized by our trading partners. The current account cash flows went almost exclusively into housing, driving long-term mortgage rates to unprecedented lows and encouraging speculation.

Hilariously, in his editorial Greenspan cites famous economist Milton Friedman as saying that during Greenspan’s tenure from 1985-2005, “There is no other period of comparable length in which the Federal Reserve System has performed so well. It is more than a difference of degree; it approaches a difference of kind.”

Friedman did not live to see the aftermath of Greenspan’s policies. Short-term federal funds and long-term mortgage rates did diverge in correlation, but they did so precisely because of Fed and other governmental policies. The structural distortions in our economy leading to sustained trade imbalances were caused by irresponsible monetary and fiscal policies. Congress legislated the creation of the secondary mortgage market, mandated that it funnel capital to subprime borrowers, and taxed away America’s industrial base. Couple this with a sustained period of negative real interest rates orchistrated by Greenspan, and the U.S. economy grew ridiculously distorted over time, channeling the world’s savings towards our consumption, leaving the country bereft of productive capacity. Housing is not productive, but consumptive.

Global trade is not the problem. Current account and trade deficits, of themselves, are not the problem. Artificial interest rate manipulation, social engineering legislation that drives consumption over production, and inflationary monetary policy that drives perpetual inflation and currency debasement are the issues.

Mr. Greenspan accuses his detractors of rewriting history, but that is precisely what he is attempting to do.

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Freedom Under Fire, Mar. 4th, 2009

Freedom Under Fire, Mar. 4th, 2009

China launching massive domestic stimulus, details on the $275 billion homeowner bailout, landmark Supreme Court ruling for drug makers, Chavez declares war on opposition media and nationalizes a U.S.-based company, lawmakers defend 9,000 earmarks including “swine odor research”, and a Russian economist predicts civil war in U.S. in 2009…just the latest in your Freedom Under Fire Report! Continue Reading

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Freedom Under Fire, Mar. 2nd, 2009

Freedom Under Fire, Mar. 2nd, 2009

White House budget found to have “fuzzy math” on war estimates, new role for federal government to provide broadband Internet, U.S. gives Palestinians $900 million, Harvard economist says bailing out homeowners is a mistake, 4th Obama appointee found evading taxes, bank Nationalists look to Sweden, temporary nationalization of mortgage industry now permanent, 1 in 31 adults behind bars in U.S., Australia leaves benchmark rate unchanged, and Bush memos claim unfettered rendition powers…just the latest in your Freedom Under Fire Report! Continue Reading

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Nationalize Banks or Privatize Congress?

Nationalize Banks or Privatize Congress?

With all the speculation on a government takeover of the banking industry, including Alan Greenspan’s statement that “the U.S. may have to temporarily nationalize some banks until the industry is restructured,” we should do some serious soul searching. America has a long tradition of respecting property rights and restricting government power from the private domain. Overt nationalization would be unconstitutional, but change is in the air… Continue Reading

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Financial Crisis Proves Failure of Government, not Capitalism

Financial Crisis Proves Failure of Government, not Capitalism

Community Organizer (CO) Barack Obama has repeatedly stated that this financial crisis proves a fundamental failure of our economic system. He’s right. Although, I doubt he realizes exactly why. CO Obama believes these hard times point to the failure of free enterprise, markets, and Capitalism. On that count, he’s incorrect…nearly treasonously so.  We are witnessing the results of decades of bad government policy.  Social engineering on so many convoluted levels has finally caused such a severe blow to our society that we are finally taking notice. The best explanation comes from Harvard University economist, Jeffrey A. Miron. Continue Reading

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