Tag Archive | "money"
Posted on 12 June 2010. Tags: barack obama, blog political, blog real estate, california real estate, class warfare, credit cycle, Economics, Fannie Mae, financial system, fiscal policy, FNM, freedom, home prices, homes manhattan beach, housing policies, housing policy, housing prices, HUD, income manhattan beach, inflation, liberty, manhattan beach, manhattan beach homes, manhattan beach income, manhattan beach property, monetary policy, money, mortgage, mortgage deduction, obama, political blog, political economy, Politics, politics blog, politics real estate, prices housing, Real Estate, real estate blog, real estate economics, real estate prices, real estate tax, Rob Viglione, socal real estate, socalrea, socialism, southern california, tax, tax real estate, taxation
The White House is urging Congress to limit, or cut, the once untouchable tax break for mortgage interest. In traditional class warfare parlance, the White House cap on mortgage interest deductions will fall only upon the wealthy. Let’s not drink the Obama Kool-Aid – the effects of this legislative move will impact everyone.
The Obama administration is proposing reducing deductions for homeowners who earn more than $250,000 pear year. Since I’m a southern California Realtor®, I’ll bring up an example from my local market – the South Bay; in particular, Manhattan Beach, CA.

Chart from LA Times Local Neighborhoods.
Manhattan Beach is a wealthy southern California city, nestled along a prime beach-front location. With 38% of Manhattan Beach residents earning over $125,000 per year, we expect this legislative change will materially impact our local market.
When many home buyers calculate the amount of home they can afford, mortgage interest deductions on income factor heavily into capital service capacity, i.e. how much mortgage they can comfortably afford to pay every month. If a high income earner is in the 34% income tax bracket and has a $5,000 per month mortgage, of which, say, roughly $4,000 is comprised of interest payments, the net annual benefit of the tax break is $16,320, or $1,360 per month.
with a simple 5% mortgage rate, the effect of removing the tax break amounts to reducing home values by $326,400, or 34%, the marginal tax rate. These are very simple assumptions; the reality of this legislative change will likely not be as severe. Higher end properties will likely be impacted the most, with falling price levels manifesting in some way throughout the entire housing market.
President Bush attempted to eliminate the mortgage tax break in 2005, but was stopped by Congress. The Obama administration tried this same legislative change with last years budget, but met similar obstacles. Given that the real estate market is in such turmoil, and that so many people gain advantage from perpetuating this tax break, it is unlikely the White House proposal will be accepted by Congress.
What Does The Mortgage Tax Break Mean For The Economy?
There is no free lunch in economics weve all heard that term, right? The same is true for tax breaks, or any legislative market manipulation. Enabling borrowers to write off interest payments from their income tax liability increases incentives to borrow money to buy real estate. This ultimately skews capital structures in that less equity investment is made with purchases relative to debt assumption. Increasing debt levels simultaneously increases prices and risk. In essence, the mortgage tax break causes housing to be over-capitalized, siphoning disproportionate capital resources from other parts of the economy.
Eliminating the tax break makes good economic sense; however, the result will inevitably be a deflation in housing prices. The magnitude of the deflation is uncertain. Given that real estate markets are already on shaky grounds, reducing, or eliminating, policies that support home prices can potentially lead to a market route.
All things considered, it is too bad President Bush was not able to repeal this tax break in 2005. That was probably the best time to moderate an over-heated market, and realign national capital resources in a relatively stable environment. We may have missed that opportunity for some time.
Posted in Investing, Politics, Real Estate
Posted on 13 April 2009. Tags: AAA, accountability, acquisition, Alan Meltzer, apartment building, bailout programs, banking, banks, barack obama, Ben Bernanke, Benjamin Graham, Big Brother, big government, bond auction, bond market, borrow, buy your first apartment building, california, Carnegie mellon, CFA, CFA study program, Chairman, charter, Chartered Financial Analyst, CNN, commercial real estate, competitive, conservative insurgency, credit markets, crowd out, debt, Delta Global Advisors, depression, eavesdropping, economy, fair tax, Fed historian, federal, federal reserve, financial system, fiscal policies, Georgia, government debt, hedge inflation, hedge risk, history, hyperinflation, independent media, inflation, Keynes, learn about CFA, Michael Pento, Milton Friedman, monetary policy, money, money printing, money supply, municipal bonds, munis, nest egg, Obama administration, Obamanomics, older workers, online, political economist, Politics, President Obama, private placement, private sector, progressive taxation, public auction, public oversight, Real Estate, recession, releveraging, Retirement, risk, risk management, risk mitigation, Rob Viglione, Santa Monica Tea Party, secrecy, socal real estate advisors, spend, state, state secrets, struggling to pay taxes, surveillance, tax protests, tax reform, taxation, tea parties, tears, The Freedom Factory, transparency, Treasury securities, unemployment, Utah, valuation, value investing, what is a CFA, wiretapping
Obama continues Bush policy of surveillance secrecy despite campaign promises, tax protests spark conservative insurgency online, submit video footage of your tax woes to CNN and you might be aired nationally, Fed historian and political economist predicts worse inflation than 1970s, consider real estate as an inflation hedge, municipal bond market shows signs of life, older workers 45 years and older face brunt of recession, and flood of government debt crowds out private economy… Continue Reading
Posted in Featured, Freedom Under Fire
Posted on 02 April 2009. Tags: Alan Grayson, anti-capitalist, bailouts, barack obama, Britain, budget deficit, capitalism, corporate bonuses, death tax, democrat, Economics, empire, estate tax, executive pay, federal budget, financial crisis, financial regulations, financial regulators, fiscal policy, free enterprise, free trade, freedom, G20, George W. Bush, home prices, house, House of Representatives, housing, Hugo Chavez, Investing, liberty, London, money, president, president bush, President Obama, Real Estate, Rob Viglione, taxpayer money, Tim Geithner, Treasury Department, U.S. empire, UK, united kingdom, Venezuela, violence
Anti-Capitalist protests turn violent in London, Venezuela’s Chavez accuses U.S. of acting like an ‘empire’, House passes bill to allow corporate bonuses, Obama brings back the ‘death tax’, and U.K. home prices rise for first time since 2007… Continue Reading
Posted in Featured, Freedom Under Fire
Posted on 27 March 2009. Tags: Afghanistan, Al Qaeda, Atlas Shrugged, Atlas Shrugged coming true, auto industry, automakers, Ayn Rand, bailout, bankers, bankruptcy, barack obama, bondholders, bonds, border, chief executives, commaners, compels bankers to cooperate, concessions, congress, debt, drug prohibition, drug war, federal loans, financial institutions, free enterprise, freedom, goals in Afghanistan, Hillary Clinton, Hitler Adolf Hitler, intolerable, Jews, liberty, Mexico, military, money, objectives, persecution, police, President Obama, prohibition, protectionism, Rob Viglione, scapegoats, Secretary of State, socialism, summoned, Taliban, taxpayer funds, union workers, unions, violence, wall street, War on Drugs, White House
Bankers compelled to cooperate with government, Obama narrows goals in Afghanistan-ends “nation building” activities, expect more taxpayer handouts to automakers, and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Mexico to pledge U.S. support for War on Drugs…just the latest in your Freedom Under Fire Report! Continue Reading
Posted in Featured, Freedom Under Fire
Posted on 27 March 2009. Tags: bank bailout, banking, banks, barack obama, business cycle, Capitalims, collectivism, communism, compensation, congress, Constitution. free society, control, democrats, depression, dollar, economic downturn, Economics, Edward Bernstein, Employment, executive bonuses, federal reserve, finance, financial industry, free enterprise, free trade, freedom liberty, Karl Marx, leftism, legislation, money, Mustasche Revolution, nationalization, not under my nose, Politics, President Obama, recession, revolution, Sam Rothrock, socialism, stock options, stress test, tax, taxation, temporary government ownership, United States of America, USD
The Mustache Revolution is brewing. It is not a fashion statement; it does not even involve hair. It is the revolution that is happening in America, Right Under Our Noses. It fits right in between Marxs model of government overthrow and Bernsteins democratic socialism. This is elected officials distracting the electorate that begs them to act unconstitutionally. Here is how it was done.
A Little History
Karl Marx advocated a violent revolution to nationalize industry, redistribute wealth, and create a proletarian dictatorship. This would be very difficult for the American left, since they are anti-gun, anti-violence, and tend to dislike noncompliance. Edward Bernstein came around after Marxs death and advocated democratic socialism. His goal was still to nationalize industry, but to accomplish it democratically. What is happening today is the Mustache Revolution; it meets the standards of both socialist ideologies. The US has elected our President and Congress democratically; most of the legislation has come about democratically; the problem is that the boundaries set by the constitution, make the process too slow. Therefore, in the name of Crises, Necessity, or Protection the limits on government are quickly removed.
Bailout Big Banks
Step one, use tax dollars to keep private businesses afloat. This gives government, not total control, but the ability to regulate finance in order to protect the interest of the people. Step two, make an enormous legislative blunder, and blame it on the banking industry. Let us not forget that the clause about the executive bonuses was removed, not forgotten, not left out, but removed. After there is a huge public outcry over executive bonuses, the next step is to levy a 90% tax. This tax of course is not limited to the bank that gave the bonuses, nor is it limited to the banking industry; the plan is to levy a tax on all executives who have a high salary and receive bonuses.
Stress Test
Of course, the wealth redistribution is not enough. The remaining step is to take major services, such as banking, health care, or auto manufacturers, and make them national industries. The first and most important of these is to take over the financial industry. The Financial industry is essential, because all businesses run off of the availability of credit (hence capitalism). Once all industries are getting their loans from the government, their nationalization will happen quickly and with little protest. So, after bailing out the banking industry, the next step is to create a stress test; this serves two purposes; 1) it asserts government power over the industry (no other industry needs to be deemed strong enough to survive in order to exist in the US economy), and 2) it makes people think that the government should step in when the test is not passed. Third, after the failure of the stress tests, the government will claim that the banks need to come under temporary government control. Since government has never improved a business after taking it over, temporary can be a very long time.
Not Under My Nose!
Things that stink are not meant to pass under your nose without notice! This revolution cannot continue to be ignored simply because we are in an economic downturn. Recession is not an excuse to jump from crises to crises without thinking out the political consequences of our actions. The hardest thing to regain, once it is lost, is freedom. And freedom is blindfolded on its knees in front of a gun named socialism.
Posted in Politics
Posted on 18 March 2009. Tags: 30-Year Treasuries, Ben Bernanke, bonds, budget deficit, Chairman, checkmate, congress, Consumer Price Index, CPI, debt, dollar, Economics, federal reserve, fixed income, free enterprise, GDX, GLD, gold, idiocy, inflation, money, money supply, national debt, nationalization, Politics, printing, protectionism, Rob Viglione, socialism, treasuries, U.S. dollar, USD, UUP
The verdict is not yet out as to whether we will experience inflation or deflation in the near term. The argument has been raging with pundits on both sides clinging to data they claim supports their guesses. Today marks a big day in the debate, however, with two critical pieces of news:
1) Consumer price index (CPI) rises more than expected, up 0.4% in Feb. following a 0.3% gain in Jan. This represents at 4.8% annualized inflation rate.
2) Federal Reserve committed to buying $300 billion in long-term Treasuries as part of its plan to drive consumer borrowing costs lower.
The immediate fallout can be seen in Gold, the U.S. dollar, and Treasuries today. Both pieces of news are inflationary. Rather than the feared ‘deflationary spiral’ we’re starting to see consumer prices heat up, albeit not appreciately just yet. The Fed buying Treasuries amounts to them printing $300 billion in new currency. This money is created out of thin air.
Most telling on inflationary fears is the Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX), up over 10% today, while the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) approached a 4% gain. PowerShares US Dollar Index (UUP) dropped over 3%, and the 30-Year Treasury yield fell to a low of 3.37% after the Fed announcement, settling higher at 3.57% later in the day.
In Checkmate: How the Federal Government Will Lose in 2009 I argued that our leaders were backing public finances into a predictable corner. With $2-3 trillion in budget deficit for 2009, alone, with more planned in coming years, government will be forced to increase borrowing or printing. Today’s news supports the ‘printing’ hypothesis, but I suspect this is just the beginning. The big game unfolding will be the Treasury issuing bonds to raise funds and the Fed turning around and buying them. This is a scam that will either lead to increasing bond yields or increasing inflation. There are no other options.
Posted in Economics, Investing, Politics